How do we make betting predictions

When we make betting predictions for football matches we usually consider things like the position in the overall standings, the last time a team won or lost or the results from the last 10 matches between the two teams. For me, this is totally wrong if you want to make a really good betting strategy.

In football matches there is only one major factor that determines whether a teamfootball will win, make a draw or lose a match. This factor is goals. Nothing else! Just goals! They decide which team will grab the points. The goals decide the position of a team in the final standings. The only important thing is whether a team will be able to score or prevent goals from being scored in the net.

This is why when I do my betting predictions I have a look only on the goals scored and allowed by both teams plus sometimes the goal attempts created by a team in the match.

Moreover, I look only at the betting statistics from the last four home matches for the home team and the last four away games for the guests in the match. The reason is simple and it is mostly related to the fact that usually four home or away matches are associated with a period of about fifty days. The form of the players is not something permanent. It changes through the course of the season and it must be monitored in the most accurate time.

So how exactly do I use goals in my betting strategy? First I track the ratio between the total number of goal attempts and actually scored goals as host and guest. Then I divide the teams according to their result into five groups.


When I’m ready, I carefully track the performance of a team from one group against a team from another group and by doing that I create my personal betting database of results.

Where my betting database shows that a bet would give me profit there I bet without hesitation. That’s it! Simple, yet effective!

Bet on draws on soccer matches combined with odds number of goals

For the past few days, a betting system for football matches grabbed my attention. I’ll do most of my betting researches on it as I carefully record my results to see if it makes sense to invest more effort on it or not.

Basically,arsenal I bet with a fairly good success on draws on football matches. I managed to achieve about 15% net profit from around 100 bets, which is not something amazing, but it is still a profit. However, a few days ago, I decided to try a backup to my bets on football draws that should be successful. It’s about breaking the bet in two parts with one bet on the draw and the other for this match to end with an odd number of goals.

The idea is simple. When betting on matches, expecting draws you usually bet on teams with equal strength. In a huge percentage of cases such matches ended either with a draw or with a win for one of the teams with one goal difference.

Thus, I cover both cases. If the match ends with a draw, the bet is winning. If it ends with a win with one goal difference, the bet on odd goals becomes winning.

So far the system works more than well as my success is over 80%. Of course, the profit is much lower than if you bet only on draws and have such great success rate, but even so I was able to achieve ROI within 30% so far, which is more than fine.

Of course, right now I do only paper sheet betting. I want to make 100 bets and only then to start betting with real money. Unfortunately it has too often happened to me to have a system which looks really promising, but it later turns out that things are not quite as good as at first glance.


Even after 100 bets if the system works well, I would not start betting with big money, but I will start with the lower bank. Thus I will try to gain the needed money from the system itself and I will protect my betting bank from losing money in case of serious failure.

Wigan – Arsenal betting prediction

For the second time this season Arsenal succeeded to achieve two consecutive wins in the English Premier League after beating WBA with 2-0 at home and Reading as a guest with 2:5. The previous series was after victories over Liverpool and Southampton and ended with a draw away against the champions from last year Manchester City, followed by a loss from Chelsea at home.

Could this Arsenal team reach a third successive win against the traditionally weak team of arsenal-wiganWigan? Last season the guests from London succeeded only twice to reach a series of three or more wins, but both series were more than impressive. One with seven straight wins and the other with five consecutive victories.

For me this Arsenal team is worse than the team from last year and this is mainly due to the absence of Robin van Persie. Theo Walcott’s desire to play as a central striker has led to chaos in the team and the position of Olivier Giroux is not very clear.

On the other hand, Wigan is a traditionally inconvenient opponent for the Londoners as they beat them last year, drew two seasons ago and managed to take another win in the season 2009/2010.

For me, the question is how sure is to bet for a Wigan win with an Asian Handicap margin of one goal. Such bet would be lost if Arsenal win by two goals or more, something that at least I don’t think is particularly likely. Arsenal simply lack that class, allowing them to win in a long series of matches. Something in the very spirit of the team is broken. It seems that Arsene Wenger’s players don’t believe in themselves and this prevents them from winning.

On the other hand, the situation with the players of Wigan is the opposite. Roberto Martinez’s players know that in the recent years they have always been among the favorites for relegation, but it never happened. They know that they can fulfill their task again and this makes them dangerous. Moreover, they already know what it feels like to beat Arsenal.

Therefore I will bet for a win for Wigan with a margin of one goal and odds of 1.7.