When we make betting predictions for football matches we usually consider things like the position in the overall standings, the last time a team won or lost or the results from the last 10 matches between the two teams. For me, this is totally wrong if you want to make a really good betting strategy.
In football matches there is only one major factor that determines whether a team
will win, make a draw or lose a match. This factor is goals. Nothing else! Just goals! They decide which team will grab the points. The goals decide the position of a team in the final standings. The only important thing is whether a team will be able to score or prevent goals from being scored in the net.
This is why when
I do my betting predictions I have a look only on the goals scored and allowed by both teams plus sometimes the goal attempts created by a team in the match.
Moreover, I look only at the betting statistics from the last four home matches for the home team and the last four away games for the guests in the match. The reason is simple and it is mostly related to the fact that usually four home or away matches are associated with a period of about fifty days. The form of the players is not something permanent. It changes through the course of the season and it must be monitored in the most accurate time.
So how exactly do I use goals in my betting strategy? First I track the ratio between the total number of goal attempts and actually scored goals as host and guest. Then I divide the teams according to their result into five groups.
When I’m ready, I carefully track the performance of a team from one group against a team from another group and by doing that I create my personal betting database of results.
Where my betting database shows that a bet would give me profit there I bet without hesitation. That’s it! Simple, yet effective!